Gas price tomorrow, city by city
For Tuesday, October 27, 2026: regular is estimated at 173.4¢/L in Toronto and 189.6¢/L in Montreal.
Estimate for tomorrow, Tuesday, October 27, 2026, Toronto
173.4¢/L
−3.3¢ compared with the last official figure (survey of Monday, October 19, 2026).
| Official starting point | 176.7¢/L (survey of Monday, October 19, 2026) |
| Wholesale price, up to October 21, 2026, with sales tax | −3.3¢ |
| Past error of the method | ±2.4¢ on average over 140 weeks ("no change" guess: ±3.8¢) |
Source: Government of Ontario, survey of Monday, October 19, 2026. Estimate: the posted price can differ, stations change prices at any hour.
Prepared by Radif Partners · Method · official sources read on October 26, 2026 · estimate for October 27, 2026, published method
Tomorrow's gas price is not published anywhere officially, so this page estimates it from what is. For each city it takes the latest official figure (a weekly Ontario survey, the Régie de l'énergie's daily Quebec survey, an Atlantic regulator's maximum, or a Statistics Canada monthly average), adds the change in wholesale prices published since, multiplied by one plus the sales tax rate, and adds any tax change already dated for tomorrow. For October 27, 2026, that gives 173.4¢/L for regular in Toronto, against 176.7¢/L at the October 19, 2026 survey, and 156.0¢/L in Calgary, where the September average still included the Alberta fuel tax suspended on October 1. Among cities with a daily or weekly figure, 5 point down, 0 up and 8 unchanged. Replayed over 140 past weeks in Toronto, the method missed by 2.4¢/L on average, against 3.8¢/L for repeating the last price.
What the estimate is made of
Three things can move a pump price between one official figure and tomorrow: the price of gasoline on the wholesale market, the margins of wholesalers and retailers, and taxes. Margins are not published, so the method assumes they stay where they were at the last survey. Wholesale prices and taxes are published, and the method uses both.
For wholesale prices, the Government of Ontario publishes daily rack prices for Toronto, Thunder Bay and Edmonton, but about a week late. That is enough to bring a Statistics Canada monthly average up to date, but it rarely says anything about the days after a Monday survey. For those days the method reads the Régie de l'énergie du Québec, whose survey of posted prices in the Montréal region comes out every weekday morning. Once GST, QST, the Quebec fuel tax, the transit levy and the federal excise tax are taken out, the rest moves with the wholesale market that supplies Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. The change in that pre-tax figure since the last survey, times one plus the local sales tax, is the market part of the estimate.
Taxes are simpler: they change on dates set by law. The federal excise tax, Alberta's quarterly fuel tax rate and Prince Edward Island's suspension are all entered with their dates, so the estimate for the day a change takes effect includes it to the cent.
Tomorrow in another city
Estimate for tomorrow, Tuesday, October 27, 2026, Ottawa
167.5¢/L
| Official starting point | 170.8¢/L (survey of Monday, October 19, 2026) |
| Wholesale price, up to October 21, 2026, with sales tax | −3.3¢ |
| Past error of the method | ±2.5¢ on average over 140 weeks ("no change" guess: ±3.8¢) |
Three kinds of starting point
In Ontario the starting point is the Monday survey: Ottawa's was 170.8¢/L on October 19, 2026. In Quebec it is the morning survey of the Régie, already a figure for today, so the estimate for tomorrow can only add a tax change; Montreal stands at 189.6¢/L. In the Atlantic provinces it is a legal maximum that changes on known days: Halifax's ceiling of 185.3¢/L has applied since October 23, 2026 and stays until the next Friday reset unless the Nova Scotia Energy Board intervenes mid-week. In the West, where no open daily or weekly source exists, the starting point is the Statistics Canada average for September 2026, brought forward by Edmonton rack prices.
How good the estimate has been
The method is replayed on the past for every city and fuel: from each survey it estimates the next one using only what had been published the day before, including the week of delay on rack prices, then compares with what was actually published. Each city page prints the average miss next to the miss of a "no change" guess. When the method does not beat that guess, as for diesel, the page says so. The complete table is on the method page.
The error is measured on official averages. A single station can sit several cents away from the average of its city, in either direction, and can change its sign at any hour: the estimate tells you where the average is heading, not what one forecourt will post.
Using it to decide when to fill up
Compare the gap between today's figure and tomorrow's estimate with the method's usual miss for your city. A gap well above that miss is a market move the sources already show; a gap below it is within the noise, and the two days are effectively the same. On a 55-litre fill-up, each cent is 55 cents: in Toronto, the gap between the last survey and tomorrow's estimate is worth $1.81. For the price trend beyond tomorrow, which no source can tell, see what is already scheduled on the gas price forecast page.