Gas price forecast: what is already dated
If the draft bill (proposed, not enacted) passes, the federal excise tax will add 11.3¢/L to a litre of regular in Ontario from April 1, 2027.
Extra a month from April 1, 2027 (proposed, not enacted)
$13.56
+11.30¢ a litre, with sales tax: schedule of a bill that is proposed, not enacted.
| Until January 31, 2027 (proposed, not enacted) | $0.00 |
| February and March 2027, half rate (proposed, not enacted), a month | $6.78 |
| From April 2027 (proposed, not enacted), a year | $163 |
| Excise rate on April 1, 2027 (proposed, not enacted) | 10¢/L |
Schedule: Finance Canada (suspension of April 20, 2026; September 2026 draft legislation (proposed, not enacted): extension to January 31, 2027, half rate in February and March, full rate on April 1, 2027).
Prepared by Radif Partners · Method · official sources read on October 26, 2026 · estimate for October 27, 2026, published method
Nobody can forecast the market price of gasoline months ahead: it follows crude oil, refinery margins and the exchange rate, none of which is known in advance. What can be forecast are the tax changes that already have a date. The largest is the federal excise tax, suspended since April 20, 2026: under Finance Canada's draft legislation (proposed, not enacted) it returns at 5¢/L on February 1, 2027 and at 10¢/L on April 1, 2027, which, sales tax included, adds 11.3¢/L to a litre of regular in Ontario. Prince Edward Island's 8.47¢/L gasoline tax is suspended until January 31, 2027, and Alberta's 13¢/L tax is not collected until at least December 31, 2026; from 2027 it depends each quarter on the price of WTI oil. For context, the Statistics Canada average for September 2026 was 184.3¢/L, 27.8% above September 2025.
The calendar of known changes
Four dates are written into law or into published drafts. On January 1, 2027 at the earliest, Alberta may start collecting its fuel tax again, at a rate set by the oil price. On February 1, 2027, Prince Edward Island's suspension ends and the federal excise comes back at half rate. On April 1, 2027, the excise returns in full. Each step is entered in the site's tax tables with its date, so the estimate for the day it takes effect already includes it.
The table shows what the excise return means in each province, sales tax included. The provinces with a harmonized sales tax see a little more than the 10 cents, because HST is charged on the excise itself.
| Province | Feb. 1, 2027 | Apr. 1, 2027 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ontario | +5.6¢ | +5.6¢ | +11.3¢ |
| Quebec | +5.7¢ | +5.7¢ | +11.5¢ |
| British Columbia | +5.3¢ | +5.3¢ | +10.5¢ |
| Alberta | +5.3¢ | +5.3¢ | +10.5¢ |
| Saskatchewan | +5.3¢ | +5.3¢ | +10.5¢ |
| Manitoba | +5.3¢ | +5.3¢ | +10.5¢ |
| Nova Scotia | +5.7¢ | +5.7¢ | +11.4¢ |
| New Brunswick | +5.8¢ | +5.8¢ | +11.5¢ |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | +5.8¢ | +5.8¢ | +11.5¢ |
| Prince Edward Island | +5.8¢ | +5.8¢ | +11.5¢ |
These steps come from draft legislation: Parliament can still change the dates or the rates. When the law is enacted or amended, the table and the calculators follow the official text on the next daily update.
Your extra cost from 2027
Extra a month from April 1, 2027 (proposed, not enacted)
$17.10
| Until January 31, 2027 (proposed, not enacted) | $0.00 |
| February and March 2027, half rate (proposed, not enacted), a month | $8.55 |
| From April 2027 (proposed, not enacted), a year | $205 |
| Excise rate on April 1, 2027 (proposed, not enacted) | 10¢/L |
The last twelve weeks
To give a sense of scale, the weekly Ontario survey for Toronto ranged from 162.3¢/L (August 10, 2026) to 186.9¢/L (October 5, 2026) over the last twelve weeks published, without any tax change in that period. The market alone moved the price by 24.6¢/L, more than the full return of the excise. Planning a budget on the tax calendar alone would therefore miss most of the variation.
A year of driving at today’s price
Fuel for a year, small suv in Toronto
$2,211
| Per month | $184 |
| Per 100 km | $14.74 |
| Consumption used | 8.5 L/100 km |
| Each extra 10¢ a litre | $128 |
Prince Edward Island, a double step in February
February 1, 2027 is the day two changes would meet on the Island, one of them proposed, not enacted. The provincial gasoline tax of 8.47¢/L, suspended since September 26, 2026, comes back the same day the federal excise would return at half rate (proposed, not enacted). With HST at 15% on top, a litre of regular would carry 15.5¢/L more than in January, before any market move. This site follows the Island only through its tax tables for now: no open city average for Charlottetown is published, so there is no price to carry forward, only the tax part, which the calculator gives exactly.
Diesel follows the same calendar with smaller federal steps: 2¢/L in February and 4¢/L in April. The calculator above switches to diesel with the fuel choice.
Alberta, a moving rate
Alberta's relief program ties the provincial fuel tax to WTI oil: the higher the crude price, the lower the tax, with four possible rates and a cap of 9 cents of increase per quarter. The September Statistics Canada average for Calgary, 167.3¢/L, still included the tax; the estimate for tomorrow removes it, which is why the Calgary page shows a figure well below the monthly average. The rate for the first quarter of 2027 is not known yet, and this site will not guess it.
Why no market forecast
Estimating tomorrow is possible because the wholesale prices of the past few days are already published and pass to the pump with a short delay. Beyond a few days, the method has nothing to work with: futures prices for gasoline exist, but they are not open data, and they are a poor guide to the price at a given station months away. So this page gives what is certain, the dated tax changes, and leaves the market part blank. For the next day, with its measured error, see the gas price tomorrow page.